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Q4 Net Migration Trends & What it Means for Multifamily Investors

Updated: Jan 4


US migration trends

As a multifamily owner and operator, I've had the unique opportunity to witness firsthand the shifts of the various markets. The recent data from November 2023 has been particularly revealing, offering a snapshot of the current migration trends within the United States. I'm excited to share these insights with you as we explore the implications of these shifts and strategize for the future.


Understanding the Landscape


The latest migration data reveals a continuation of pandemic-era patterns into 2023, with movements now reflecting a more permanent shift rather than a fleeting reaction. States like Arizona and Texas are experiencing a net population increase, leading to a heightened demand for multifamily housing. This surge is fostering a vibrant rental market with increased rates and potentially higher property valuations.


Conversely, there's a noticeable deceleration, with the share of U.S. homebuyers looking to move to a different metro area decreasing for the third consecutive month in November. This suggests a potential stabilization and a possible plateau in demand for multifamily housing in previously booming markets.


November also marked the most significant rise in home sale prices since October 2022, pushing the median to $408,732. This escalation in costs may steer more individuals towards renting, increasing the demand for multifamily.


Region-specific trends, such as the 49% reduction in net migration in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX area, indicate cooling markets. Meanwhile, in Florida, the confluence of inflation, interest rates, insurance premiums and migration patterns is set to redefine the real estate landscape, presenting a multifaceted scenario for investors to navigate.

 

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Data Overview


US Migration trends map

Top 5 States

Population Migrated In

Population Migrated Out

Population Net Change

Arizona

104,590

44,170

0.82%

Florida

258,158

110,884

0.69%

Hawaii

17,414

10,489

0.54%

Nevada

28,111

21,275

0.25%

Texas

128,137

100,168

0.15%


Lowest 5 States

Population Migrated In

Population Migrated Out

Population Net Change

Wyoming

5,544

11,107

-0.90%

Maine

6,037

14,951

-0.66%

Alaska

5,432

10,745

-0.62%

North Dakota

6,345

11,018

-0.53%

Vermont

3,436

6,728

-0.52%

Data source: placer.ai


Strategic Considerations for Investors


  • Evaluating Responsive Acquisition: As investors, it's crucial to consider the agility of your acquisition strategies. Focus on high-growth states but also be cautious of market saturation. Being proactive and prudent in your approach can help optimize returns while managing risks effectively.


  • Understanding Proactive Asset Management: In markets with declining populations, consider the importance of actively enhancing properties. Flexible lease terms, improved amenities, and technology integrations can make a significant difference in attracting and retaining residents. Reflect on how these strategies align with your investment goals.


  • The Importance of Selective Development: Direct your attention to areas with sustained growth indicators when considering development opportunities. Being selective means not merely following the trends but making future-centric investments. Assess how this approach fits with your long-term investment strategy.


  • Emphasizing Risk Diversification: Recognize the importance of diversifying your investment portfolio. Allocating investments across various geographic locations and multifamily property types can safeguard against abrupt demographic changes. Consider how diversification can balance and protect your investment portfolio.


  • Leveraging Market Research Intensification: Understand the value of leveraging real-time market research and data analytics. Staying informed about the subtleties of migration patterns and market dynamics can lead to more informed decision-making. Consider how integrating advanced research into your strategy can enhance your investment approach.


  • Capitalizing on Market Corrections: Be aware of the potential opportunities in states with net population losses. Identifying undervalued assets with strong fundamentals could position you favorably for when the market rebounds. Reflect on how a strategic approach to market corrections can fit into your broader investment strategy.


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Moving Forward Together


While the November 2023 migration data represents a brief snapshot, it provides critical insights into the immediate pressures and opportunities within the multifamily market. As we move forward, staying informed and strategic is paramount. Navigating the multifamily market with an eye for both resilience and growth is essential. Our optimism for the future, combined with strategic planning, will be key to achieving our shared goals.


As always, Be Bold, Be great, and Keep Pushing Forward!


handwriting of a signature of the author



P.S. If one of your priorities, like mine, is building and preserving your wealth through multifamily real estate investments, click here to discuss how we can partner together.

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Source: placer.ai


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If you are an accredited investor interested in learning more about passively investing in multifamily properties, click here to complete our investor form and schedule a call with our Investor Relations team.


About Ellie Perlman



photo of ellie perlman

Ellie Perlman is the founder of Blue Lake Capital, a commercial real estate investment firm specializing in multifamily investing throughout the United States. At Blue Lake Capital, Ellie partners with both institutional and individual investors to grow their wealth by achieving double-digit returns by investing alongside her in exclusive multifamily deals they usually don't have access to.


A defining factor of Blue Lake Capital’s strategy is founded in utilizing machine learning/artificial intelligence throughout the course of all acquisitions and asset management. This advanced technology enables the company to produce accurate and data-driven forecasting for all assets on a market, property, and even tenant basis. In doing so, Blue Lake is able to lead commercial investments with the full capabilities of today’s technology.


Ellie is the founding host of REady2Scale, a podcast that highlights the assets, processes, and strategies for the multiple approaches to successful real estate investing.


She started her career as a commercial real estate lawyer, leading real estate transactions for one of Israel’s leading development companies. Later, as a property manager for Israel’s largest energy company, she oversaw properties worth over $100MM. Additionally, Ellie is an experienced entrepreneur who helped build and scale companies by improving their business operations.


Ellie holds a Masters in Law from Bar-Ilan University in Israel and an MBA from MIT Sloan School of Management.


You can read more about Blue Lake Capital and Ellie Perlman at www.bluelake-capital.com.


*The content provided on this website, including all downloadable resources, is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Furthermore, this material does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities.

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